Good old Met Office blunders along...

In case anyone missed this little gem, the Met Office predicted at the end of October that the coming winter would be milder than usual with "60%-80% confidence". (Notice that now they are uncertain about how confident they are, which makes no sense statistically...you predict something with a specific confidence level, usually...).

However, many lowest temperature records for November were broken in the past week, and today's long-range forecast for the last half of December reads: "Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe." 


And these are (some of) the people that we are supposed to trust for long-range climate predictions? Yeah, right. If they argue that "weather isn't climate", I would point out that the same atmospheric models ('general circulation models', since you ask) are used for both weather and climate prediction, and that the models used for weather (i.e. short-range, up to a few weeks) prediction are supposedly more accurate than those used for climate.